Antiestablishmentarianism is a long word and a real thing

My awesome fist pump is just one more thing that makes me relatable to the public. (Rand Paul after his primary victory in Kentucky.) (Courtesy of the NYT.)

“Ugh… Why is it always an election year??” Yeah, we hear your groaning. We’ve been groaning a lot too, but that might be all the caffeine talking.

Now come on, you know you’re interested: What happened in the “2010 Super Tuesday” election?… the one that involved voting in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Arkansas that other day? Kind of a lot, so you should probably keep reading.

The attention-worthy outcomes in these three primaries include:

• Rand Paul, son of Ron, a Tea Party kind of dude, won a Republican nomination for Senate in Kentucky
• Mark Critz won an important district handily in Pennsylvania against a Tea Party kind of dude, stepping into the late Rep. John Murtha’s shoes
• Blanche Lincoln, a Democratic Senator from Arkansas, was forced into a party run-off
• Joe Sestak beat out incumbent Democratic (and former Republican) Senator Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania

OK, that might just sound like a bunch of names. But it gets simpler from here on out.

The Hill (not to be confused with “The Hills“) breaks down the election results into four “anti-” categories to help decode them: “anti-politics, anti-incumbent, anti-establishment, anti-Democratic.”

So, will these sentiments affect the Republican establishment as much as the Democratic? No, says author Mark Mellman:

To be sure, Republicans are equally unpopular, but the momentum is clearly against the Democrats and, in November, Democrats will surely suffer disproportionate losses.

And there’s still some more harsh words to be said for all incumbents (regardless of party), like from the New York Post’s John Podhoretz:

Yes, voters are expressing dissatisfaction with the status quo. [...] Yes, populists are using their primary votes or special-election votes to stick it to the elites.

None of that gets at the central fact with which all American politicians will be forced to grapple going forward: The era of political stability for incumbents and veteran political players has truly reached its end.

But, it’s not like every incumbent/establishment candidate is going to lose come November, right? Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic notes that

Yes, it stinks to be an incumbent this year, but the truth is 90% of congressional incumbents will probably be reelected.

…mostly because there would probably be a bit of chaos if a bunch of newbie Congresspeople all descended upon Washington at the same time, and voters pretty much get that.

Both the Republican and the Democratic leadership are coming out to say that the election results are telling of the challenges they’ll be facing in the fall, but that they’re confident that their party will hold/take the majority.

The Democrats will be working diligently to push the messages that the economy is on the mend and that the big-spending bills they got through Congress since Obama has taken office (like health care reform and the economic stimulus package) will benefit the country after all. (Should they change their election slogan to “Just you wait and see!”?)

Presenting an interesting analysis of how the results could look good for the Dems, The Daily Beast writer Benjamin Sarlin sounds hopeful when he says,

The left’s showing [in the Kentucky primary] suggests that their organizational strength may be a bigger factor this fall than previously realized. But Tuesday’s vote was just the latest in a series of impressive performances for a movement overshadowed by all the talk of a banner Republican year.

Not everyone agrees that the results favor one party’s prospects over another. Like the New York Times points out, the GOP still has some ammunition for the fall:

As Republicans regrouped, they still had some fundamental forces working in their favor, including a stubbornly high unemployment rate, growing distrust of government and the tendency of the party that controls the White House to lose Congressional seats in midterm elections.

Which is worse? The party incumbents? The Beltway Establishment? The country’s economic woes? Hard to say, but the voters will definitely be bombarded in the upcoming months on all sides as the nation trudges towards what is sure to be a pretty sludgy mid-term election.

Come on! Who’s excited????